The test to detect the presence of strep throat is 98% accurate for a person who has the disease and 97% accurate for a person who does not have the disease. If 3.5% of the people in a given population actually have strep throat, what is the probability that a randomly chosen person tests positive? A. 0.0343 B. 0.035 C. 0.06325 D. 0.02895

Respuesta :

[tex]P(T\mid D)=0.98[/tex]

[tex]P(T^C\mid D^C)=0.97[/tex]

[tex]P(D)=0.035[/tex]

The law of total probability gives us that

[tex]P(T)=P(T\cap D)+P(T\cap D^C)[/tex]

[tex]P(T)=P(T\mid D)P(D)+P(T\mid D^C)P(D^C)[/tex]

By the same token it tells us that

[tex]P(D)=P(T\mid D)P(D)+P(T^C\mid D)P(D)\implies P(T^C\mid D)=1-P(T\mid D)[/tex]

or more generally that some event [tex]A[/tex] conditioned on another event [tex]B[/tex] is complementary to [tex]A^C[/tex] conditioned on [tex]B[/tex].

So we find that

[tex]P(T)=P(T\mid D)P(D)+(1-P(T^C\mid D^C))(1-P(D))[/tex]

[tex]P(T)=0.98\cdot0.035+(1-0.97)(1-0.035)=0.06325[/tex]

Answer:

C. 0.06325

Step-by-step explanation: