Consider the following information on three stocks: State of Economy Probability of State of Economy Rate of Return if State Occurs Stock A Stock B Stock C Boom .25 .27 .15 .11 Normal .65 .14 .11 .09 Bust .10 −.19 −.04 .05 A portfolio is invested 45 percent each in Stock A and Stock B and 10 percent in Stock C. What is the expected risk premium on the portfolio if the expected T-bill rate is 4.1 percent?

We have to calculate the market return and then calcualte the premium as the difference between the expected return on the market and the risk-free rate:

We multiply each outcome by the stock weight. and then for the probability of occurence of that state of economy

Calculations for boom:

Change of boom x (weighted outcome A + weighted outcome B + weighted outcome C)

0.25 x (0.45 x 0.15 + 0.45 0.27 + 0.1 x 0.05) = 0.05

[tex]\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}Stock&&B&A&C&Totals\\Weights&&0,45&0,45&0,1&&Boom&0,25&0,15&0,27&0,11&0,05&Normal&0,65&0,11&0,14&0,09&0,078975&bust&0,1&-0,04&-0,19&0,05&-0,00985&&&&&return&0,119125&\end{array}\right][/tex]

market expected return 0,1191

Market premium: 0,1191 - 0,041 = 0,0781