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Consider the following time series data.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 20 14 16 10 17 13
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place.


b. Mean squared error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place.


c. Mean absolute percentage error. If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.

%
d. What is the forecast for week 7? If required, round your answer to two decimal place.

Respuesta :

Answer:

9

Step-by-step explanation:

Mean absolute error is 0.4, mean squared error is 28.2%, mean absolute percentage error is 37.46% and the forecast for week 7 is 13.

What is native method?

Native method is used to forecast value of a data. In this the privious period value is considered as forecast value for next period.

The complete table for the data using the native method is given below.

  • Week                         1         2      3       4      5       6        7
  • Value                        20      14     16      10    17      13
  • forecasted Sale                 20      14     16    10     17       13
  • Abs. Error                            6        2      6      7      4
  • Error²                                   36      4      36   49    16
  • Abs. Error%                      42.86   12.5  60 41.18  30.77

The value of measures of forecast accuracy are,

  • a. Mean absolute error-

[tex]MAE=0.3746\\MAE=0.4[/tex]

  • b. Mean squared error-

[tex]MSE=28.2[/tex]

  • c. Mean absolute percentage error.

[tex]MAPE=37.46\%[/tex]

  • d. The forecast for week 7-

The forecast for week 7 is 13.

Hence, the mean absolute error is 0.4, mean squared error is 28.2%, mean absolute percentage error is 37.46% and the forecast for week 7 is 13.

Learn more about the forecast method here;

https://brainly.com/question/12125028

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