Respuesta :
Answer:
0.4929 = 49.29% probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker
Step-by-step explanation:
Bayes Theorem:
Two events, A and B.
[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(B)*P(A|B)}{P(A)}[/tex]
In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.
In this question:
Event A: Having a college degree.
Event B: Voting for Scott Walker.
They found that 57% of the respondents voted in favor of Scott Walker.
This means that [tex]P(B) = 0.57[/tex]
Additionally, they estimated that of those who did vote in favor for Scott Walker, 33% had a college degree
This means that [tex]P(A|B) = 0.33[/tex]
Probability of having a college degree.
33% of those who voted for Scott Walker(57%).
45% of those who voted against Scott Walker(100 - 57 = 43%). So
[tex]P(A) = 0.33*0.57 + 0.45*0.43 = 0.3816[/tex]
What is the probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker?
[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{0.57*0.33}{0.3816} = 0.4929[/tex]
0.4929 = 49.29% probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker
