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Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period 10. Let alpha = 0.4, beta = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200.
Period- Actual Demand
1- 200
2- 212
3- 214
4- 222
5- 236
6- 221
7- 240
8- 244
9- 250
10- 266

Respuesta :

Answer:

254.02

Explanation:

Relevant data provided

Forecast delivers for period 10

Alpha = 0.4

Beta = 0.2

Trend value = 4

Initial forecast = 200

For period 10 please look into the spreadsheet which has been attached which contains formulas and values.

Forecast including trends

The smoothed forecast is calculated below:

[tex]F_{t}=\alpha A_{t-1}+(1-\alpha )(F_{t-1}+T_{t-1})[/tex]

Smoothed trend formula is shown below:

[tex]T_{t}=\beta (F_{t}-F_{t-1})+(1-\beta )T_{t-1}[/tex]

Forecast including trend formula is calculated with the help of below formula:-

[tex]FIT_{t}= F_{t}+T_{t}[/tex]

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