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Two methods are used to predict how many customers will call in for help in the next four days. The first method predicts the number of callers to be 23, 5, 14, and 20 for the four respective days. The second method predicts 20, 13, 14, and 20 for the four respective days. The actual number of callers turns out to be 23, 10, 15, and 19. Which method has the bigger forecast bias?
a- the second methodb- both are equally biasedc- both are not biasedd- the first method

Respuesta :

anthougo

Answer:

The method that has the bigger forecast bias is:

the first method.

Explanation:

a) Data and Calculations:

Days                                                                        1     2     3      4    Total

First method, number of callers predicted         23    5    14    20      62

Second method, number of callers predicted   20   13    14    20      67

Actual number of callers                                     23   10    15    19      67

Comparison with actual callers:

Actual number of callers                                      23   10    15    19      67

First method, number of callers predicted         23    5    14    20     62

Forecast bias                                                         0    -5    -1     +1       -5

Comparison with actual callers:

Actual number of callers                                     23   10    15    19      67

Second method, number of callers predicted   20   13    14   20      67

Forecast bias                                                        -3   +3     -1    +1        0

b) A forecast bias between first method of prediction and actual number of callers occurs because there is a difference between the total actual number of callers and the total predicted forecasts of callers.  But there is no difference between the total actual number of callers and the predicted forecasts of the callers for method two.

Predictions are termed as the forecasting of the uncertain event or the happening. These are also dependent on the probability of whether the event has to have occurred or have the ratio of changes to occur.  

The correct answer for the method that has the bigger forecast bias is the first method.

a) Data and Calculations:

Days                                                                        1     2     3      4    Total

First method, number of callers predicted         23    5    14    20      62

Second method, number of callers predicted   20   13    14    20      67

Actual number of callers                                     23   10    15    19      67

Comparison with actual callers:

Actual number of callers                                      23   10    15    19      67

The first method, number of callers predicted    23    5    14    20     62

Forecast bias                                                            0    -5    -1     +1      -5

Comparison with actual callers:

Actual number of callers                                     23   10    15    19      67

Second method, number of callers predicted   20   13    14   20      67

Forecast bias                                                        -3   +3     -1    +1        0

b) There is a projection imbalance between the first technique of prognosis and the actual number of callers because there is a mismatch between the total actual number of callers and the total predicted forecasts of callers.  However, there is no difference between the total number of actual callers and the projected caller projections in approach two.

To know more about the forecast bias, refer to the link below:

https://brainly.com/question/799559

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