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suppose you are thinking about funding a kickstarter campaign for a hybrid mechanical/digital calendar for which you are willing to pay $125. to receive a calendar, the company requires you to pledge $100. you think there is about an 80% chance of the company succeeding. if the company fails, you will not receive a refund. Calculate the consumer surplus you obtain if the company succeeds to evaluate whether the bet is fair. a. Funding the calendar a fair bet b. A risk-averse individual take this bet acer

Respuesta :

A fair bet is one with an expected value is zero. So, a bet say, you win $3 if a toss of a fair coin turn up with head face, whereas you loose $3 , if it turned up to be tail. Now here since it's a fair coin, probability of both the outcome is equal, expected outcome = 0.5*3 + 0.5*(-3) = 0

Expected outcome in this case = gain if the company succeed* probability that company succeed + loss if the company do not succeed* probability that company do not succeed.

= (Willingness to pay - the actual payment made) * 0.8 + (-100) *0.2 = 25*0.8- 0.2* 100 = 0

Hence, it's a fair bet.

A person is risk averse if he never accepts a fair bet. This is the defining characteristics of a risk averse individual.

A risk averse individual does not take this bet.

Expected Outcomes are statements that describe what we expect. participants/customers/learners to learn and achieve. • Describe the changes that will occur at a programmatic/operational level. • Expected outcomes describe what we expect the. program/department/office to achieve and produce.

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