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The United States looks weak after a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan over the summer. That increases the temptation for Russia, China and Iran to try to settle old grievances or move forward with long-term ambitions. The revisionist powers in Asia, Europe and the Middle East will each focus on developments on other continents.

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Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war of attrition – which on current projections Russia is set to win. The article notes that Ukraine can only achieve its war aims if it moves to a war of manoeuvre; without this, it cannot regain its lost territory. The West and Europeans in particular need to overhaul their financial regulations and create economies of scale to radically stimulate the production of drones, ammunition, armoured fighting vehicles, and more.

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